Countdown to B-day

Countdown to B-day

Today Audrey officially entered her third trimester. To commemorate that, I though what would be better than to put up a countdown to the big day? However, nothing says the little guy is going to show up on June 1 as scheduled. So, I did a little research. It turns out that the actual birth dates tend to be normally distributed about the estimated due date (mean = -0.5 weeks, standard deviation = 2.12 weeks) according to these guys. (There are other estimates, but this one tends to put the due date sooner, which makes Audrey happy.) Anyway, what I did is take and randomly apply that distribution to guess a due date using a little JavaScript and got the little counter you see there. The guessed due date will be different every time the page reloads, adding the kind of uncertainty that real life affords, sort of. Geek on. šŸ™‚

6 thoughts on “Countdown to B-day

  1. Oh my, this is an exciting time! I have to admit that I was a very lucky woman in that my gestation time on each child was about 8 months.

    I love you all and pray for you all.

  2. Did you take into considerations the barometric pressure, wind currents, the Son spots ( I chose to spell Sun as Son, ha ha), and the most important, daddy playing congas on the baby’s kicking spree’s. These are all important immaterial facts. It is also the year of the Monkey, I do believe, so swinging from trees could do it. I have always found digging up the front yard helps. Centrifugal force might make a difference, but this makes Mamma mad, so be careful.

  3. Standard deviation of two weeks? Do you study anything past the second moment (standard deviation) in engineering? Skewness? Kurtosis? Econ data usually stops there b/c there’s really no practial way to interpret anyting past that. Either way, I pitty the poor mom whose on the upper end of that distribution. Becky has finally started to show some, too. Exciting times!

  4. Dude! Elisa was on the upper end of the distribution with our little guy that showed up on the 3rd of March. I appreciated the laugh from seeing your true geekness. Geek on for sure!

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